January of 2014 I took a look at what I thought would be the top genre films of 2014. Was I right, was I wrong? take a look below and see how far off I was. (all amounts are in Millions of dollars)
#1 Guardians of the Galaxy $332 I think everyone underestimated this film, I predicted it to fall in the $175 - $190 range and be #13. It nearly doubled that and shook the late summer box-office.
#2 The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 1 $313 This film did less money than I expected, but only dropped it one spot from where I expected it to be. I was estimating a little over $400. As I said in my 2015 predictions, I think the influx of teen books adapted to the big screen is hurting this markets. I think Mockingjay Part 2 will do just slightly less.
#3 Captain America: The Winter Soldier $259 I predicted $220 - $250 so I was close on this one, I just didn't expect it to be as high on the list as #3, I was predicting #5.
#4 The LEGO Movie $257 This movie came out of nowhere. I put at #14 on my list with a mere box-office total of $159, I was off by $100 and a hugely catchy tune.
#5 Transformers: Age of Extinction $245 Not far off on this one, I was calling for $253 and the #6 spot.
#6 Maleficent $241 Ops did Disney just discover the untapped female market? Not that Frozen didn't and not that men didn't go see this movie, but in a market full of big male dominated blockbusters this film broke the expectations of $100, as a matter of fact I had it doing only slightly better than Edge of Tomorrow (which I was off by $1). It was also off my chart at #17.
#7 X-Men: Days of Future Past $233 I thought this film would fare much better. I thought this would be the #2 film pulling in about $305.
#8 Dawn of the Planet of the Apes $208 I don't think I could have called this one any closer, I called it at $209 and #8.
#9 Big Hero 6 $204 I am so glad I put this on my list last year, this was a film and property that no one had heard of. I called this little know gem to come in at #13 with only $179.
#10 The Amazing Spider-Man 2 $202 If this film had done the $262 I predicted it would have come in at the #3 spot I predicted, but somehow Sony messed up on this one. What did they do wrong? They lost the story and added too many villains, just like Spider-Man 3 (the emo Spidey).
#11 Godzilla $200 Another one I was near enough to being bang on. I called for the #11 spot at $199. I am surprised that we haven't heard Warner Bros. talking about a follow up film.
#12 The Hobbit: Battle of the Five Armies $198 Yes this film is still in the box-office, and yes it will easily break Godzilla's numbers, but this is just for what it did in 2014. My prediction called for about $20 more and a #7 spot.
#13 Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles $191 I really didn't think this movie would do as well. I called for $72 and the #23 spot. This film made the biggest jump vs. my predictions.
#14 Interstellar $180 What a differance 10% can make, that's how much lower this film did from my prediction. Had it done the $199 I had seen, it still wouldn't have made the #9 spot.
So what about films that I predicted and didn't make the top 14? That would be How to Train Your Dragon 2 at #15, from my estimated #4 (biggest fall), and Divergent #16 from #11. The biggest over prediction I made was for February's Vampire Academy that scored a measly 10% of what I was hoping for. Biggest under predictions were Maleficent, at 135% more than what I called for and TMNT at 160% more.
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